Monday, January 7, 2019

Trust… so hard to earn, so easy to lose and so precious

First of all, there is something eerily interesting about committing one’s quasi-personal journal to the internet using the blog medium for all to see (although there’s no readership per se) and read posts from the previous years. Once on the internet, it’s indelible, and in my case, that has a way of rubbing a few facts in my face about my journey. It’s also embarrassing in some ways, but it’s all part of the experiment.
As we’re about to depart for the picturesque Eagle Beach in Aruba, where my wife and I will be staying for an extended vacation for the second winter in a row, thanks to having invested early in cryptocurrencies and having liquidated enough of our position just as the the bubble started to burst; I’m reflecting on where I stand on the bullish-to-bearish scale with regards to crypto.
So is Bitcoin over?
Personally, “hardly” I’d say.
If you know a little bit about Carlota Perez’s work, then you can appreciate the notion that technological revolutions tend to follow a pattern of boom and bust followed by a resurgence.
My personal take is that it’s probably far from being over for cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is about trust, or rather about the lack of a need for trust, thus the word “trust-less”.
Trust is not doing too well lately in society. From the bank bailout efforts of 2008–09 to Trump’s “fake news” propaganda onslaught of the last two years, to the 2018 Facebook-Cambridge Analytica data scandal, and on and on, trust erosion might be at an all-time high.
Trust is evaporating.
So taking a high-level view, I believe that trustless systems are the new gold, and they shall raise in demand and in value.
If the incentives aren’t aligned between the governments and crypto-assets such as Bitcoin, then who knows what the former will do to try and remain in power. No one knows history before it happens, but at a macro level, to me, betting on crypto is the safer choice, given all the factors.
I therefore remain bullish on crypto and am following the market and have been and will continue to invest in it.
Let’s see what I write in a year from now…